GatewayArcane Alpha Gateway
Sports Wizard
Alpha Dashboard
Live Data
Real-time props from 14 sportsbooks via SportWizzard. Refreshed at 10am, 2pm, and 6pm ET each day.
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ML Model
ML ensemble trained daily on millions of MLB prop outcomes. AUC ~0.71 on holdout — data the model never saw.
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Edge Detection
Edge = model probability minus book implied probability. Picks are sorted and sized by Kelly Criterion.
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Auto Execution Beta
Highest-edge picks placed automatically on Kalshi. Limit orders at model-implied price, cancelled after 5 minutes if unfilled.
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Alpha · MLB 2026  •  Research sources
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Picks Model History Monitor
⚡ What Does Edge Mean? How to Use It for Allocation
📐 Formula
edge = predicted_prob − implied_prob

predicted_prob = model's probability of OVER
implied_prob = what the book's odds imply

A +10% edge means the model thinks the event is 10% more likely than the book is pricing it.
✅ Higher Edge = Better
Higher edge picks have historically hit at a higher rate and produce more profit per unit.

Edge tiers (approximate):
<5% — marginal, low confidence
5–15% — solid, core bets
15–30% — strong, increase allocation
>30% — very strong signal

See Table 5 below for the edge → BBP relationship.
💰 Kelly Sizing
Allocation % on each card is computed by Kelly Criterion — a mathematically optimal sizing formula.

f = (bp − q) / b

where b = odds, p = predicted_prob, q = 1−p.

Higher edge → higher Kelly fraction → larger recommended bet.

Today's Picks

AUC —
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📈 Daily P&L bars = daily · line = cumulative · hover for % return · respects book filter
⚡ Edge Breakdown — Actual Results from settled bets · respects book & date filter
All bets
Date Player Prop Line Side Book Edge Prob Status P&L
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💹 Kalshi Daily History past days · click row to expand bets
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📊 What is the holdout set?   The model is trained on historical data up to a cutoff date. The holdout set is a separate slice of data the model never saw during training — it's used to measure real predictive performance. Think of it as a simulation of live betting: the model makes predictions on games it couldn't have memorized, so the results reflect true out-of-sample edge.
⚡ Edge Breakdown (Table 5 — Holdout) from eval log
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📈 Daily P&L — Holdout holdout simulation · bars = daily · line = cumulative · hover for % return · 1 unit per pick
📊 BBP / ROI by Book — Holdout
📖 Per-Book Detail
Book Validation (sim) Holdout (sim)
NHit%Exp%ROI% NHit%Exp%ROI%
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🎯 Strategy Chosen (by book & snapshot) params actually applied per snapshot model · edge / implied band / leagues
Book10am2pm6pm
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📋 Eval Log Detail (Table 1 & 4) from latest holdout eval log
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🔬 Feature Importance (MLB) top model inputs from latest eval
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📊 Book ROI — Holdout
ROI % per book · yellow line = hit rate (right axis)
💸 Picks by Book — Today
Distribution of today's picks across books
📈 Cumulative P&L
Running profit/loss in units · dashed = daily P&L (right axis)
🎯 Hit Rate by Prop Type
Historical hit % · green ≥55% · yellow ≥50% · red below
⚡ Edge Distribution — Today
Pick count per edge bucket · darker green = stronger edge
🎯 Hit Rate — Live vs Holdout by Book
Solid = live history · Striped = holdout simulation · dashed line = 50%
💰 ROI — Live vs Holdout by Book
Solid = live history · Striped = holdout simulation · dashed line = breakeven
⚡ Edge Breakdown — Live vs Holdout
Hit rate by edge band · solid = live history · striped = holdout
🔄 Over/Under Hit Rate — Live vs Holdout
Whether overs or unders are hitting above expectation
📅 Daily P&L — Live vs Holdout
Cumulative unit P&L · solid = live · dashed = holdout simulation
🧠 Model AUC Pipeline
Train → Validation → Holdout AUC. Small gap = no overfitting. Holdout is the only one that matters for real money.
⚾ MLB Runs/Game by Day
League-wide avg total runs per game · full season · refreshes daily 6am ET
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MLB NEWS
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Snapshots:
Picks Summary
📊 Book P&L — Today
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📈 Live Status — By Book
📉 Odds Movement Since Picks
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SportWizzard snapshot · about 1 min on first load
🔥 On The Wire
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🧠 Player Trends — From Historical Data
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Historical stats · first load may take a moment
Auto-refreshes every 60s ·
⚾ MLB Scores
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Matching picks to games (player teams load in seconds)