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📈 Daily P&L
bars = daily · line = cumulative · hover for % return · respects book filter
⚡ Edge Breakdown — Actual Results
from settled bets · respects book & date filter
All bets
| Date | Player | Prop | Line | Side | Book | Edge | Prob | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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💹 Kalshi Daily History
past days · click row to expand bets
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📊 What is the holdout set?
The model is trained on historical data up to a cutoff date. The holdout set is a separate slice of data the model never saw during training — it's used to measure real predictive performance. Think of it as a simulation of live betting: the model makes predictions on games it couldn't have memorized, so the results reflect true out-of-sample edge.
⚡ Edge Breakdown (Table 5 — Holdout)
from eval log
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📈 Daily P&L — Holdout
holdout simulation · bars = daily · line = cumulative · hover for % return · 1 unit per pick
📊 BBP / ROI by Book — Holdout
📖 Per-Book Detail
| Book | Validation (sim) | Holdout (sim) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | Hit% | Exp% | ROI% | N | Hit% | Exp% | ROI% | |
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🎯 Strategy Chosen (by book & snapshot)
params actually applied per snapshot model · edge / implied band / leagues
| Book | 10am | 2pm | 6pm |
|---|---|---|---|
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📋 Eval Log Detail (Table 1 & 4)
from latest holdout eval log
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🔬 Feature Importance (MLB)
top model inputs from latest eval
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📊 Book ROI — Holdout
ROI % per book · yellow line = hit rate (right axis)
💸 Picks by Book — Today
Distribution of today's picks across books
📈 Cumulative P&L
Running profit/loss in units · dashed = daily P&L (right axis)
🎯 Hit Rate by Prop Type
Historical hit % · green ≥55% · yellow ≥50% · red below
⚡ Edge Distribution — Today
Pick count per edge bucket · darker green = stronger edge
🎯 Hit Rate — Live vs Holdout by Book
Solid = live history · Striped = holdout simulation · dashed line = 50%
💰 ROI — Live vs Holdout by Book
Solid = live history · Striped = holdout simulation · dashed line = breakeven
⚡ Edge Breakdown — Live vs Holdout
Hit rate by edge band · solid = live history · striped = holdout
🔄 Over/Under Hit Rate — Live vs Holdout
Whether overs or unders are hitting above expectation
📅 Daily P&L — Live vs Holdout
Cumulative unit P&L · solid = live · dashed = holdout simulation
🧠 Model AUC Pipeline
Train → Validation → Holdout AUC. Small gap = no overfitting. Holdout is the only one that matters for real money.
⚾ MLB Runs/Game by Day
League-wide avg total runs per game · full season · refreshes daily 6am ET
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MLB NEWS
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Snapshots:
Picks Summary
📊 Book P&L — Today
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📈 Live Status — By Book
📉 Odds Movement Since Picks
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SportWizzard snapshot · about 1 min on first load
🔥 On The Wire
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🧠 Player Trends — From Historical Data
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Historical stats · first load may take a moment
Auto-refreshes every 60s · —