Research Sources

Selected academic work that informs how we think about markets, signals, and risk. Citations are for context — not a blueprint of our systems.
Stock Wizard — Equity Markets
1
Lakonishok & Lee (2001) — Are Insider Trades Informative?
Review of Financial Studies, 14(1), 79–111
Classic evidence that certain public insider purchases carry predictive information about future returns.
2
Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (2012) — Decoding Inside Information
Journal of Finance, 67(3), 1009–1043
Shows that not all insider activity is equal — some patterns matter more than others.
3
Jeng, Metrick & Zeckhauser (2003) — Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading
Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(2), 453–471
Quantifies how insider-related return effects vary with holding horizon.
4
Seyhun (1986) — Insiders' Profits, Costs of Trading, and Market Efficiency
Journal of Financial Economics, 16(2), 189–212
Foundational work on the informativeness of public insider disclosures.
5
Kelly (1956) — A New Interpretation of Information Rate
Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917–926
Classic framework for sizing bets under uncertainty.
6
Bailey & López de Prado (2014) — The Deflated Sharpe Ratio
Journal of Portfolio Management, 40(5), 94–107 · SSRN
Why reported performance can look better than it is after many trials — a reminder to deflate for selection bias.
Sports Wizard — Sports Markets
1
Kelly (1956) — A New Interpretation of Information Rate
Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917–926
Classic framework for growth-optimal staking under uncertainty.
2
Guo, Pleiss, Sun & Weinberger (2017) — On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks
ICML 2017
Modern predictors are often overconfident — calibration matters before treating model outputs as fair odds.
3
Shin (1993) — Measuring the Incidence of Insider Trading in State-Contingent Claim Markets
Economic Journal, 103(420), 1141–1153
How bookmaker prices relate to true probabilities when informed traders are present.
4
Levitt (2004) — Why Are Gambling Markets Organised Differently from Financial Markets?
Economic Journal, 114(495), 223–246
Structural differences between sportsbooks and financial markets that can leave room for mispricing.
5
Franck, Verbeek & Nüesch (2010) — Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 112(4), 802–826
Compares how accurately different betting-market structures forecast outcomes.
Hive — Prediction Markets
1
Wolfers & Zitzewitz (2004) — Prediction Markets
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 107–126
Survey of when prediction markets aggregate information well — and when liquidity or participation is thin.
2
Manski (2006) — Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets
Economics Letters, 91(3), 425–429
Why market prices are not always unbiased estimates of true probabilities.
3
Kyle (1985) — Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading
Econometrica, 53(6), 1315–1335
Canonical model of how informed order flow moves prices.
4
Glosten & Milgrom (1985) — Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market
Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 71–100
Why spreads compensate for adverse selection — relevant to maker vs taker costs.
5
Snowberg & Wolfers (2010) — Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias
Journal of Political Economy, 118(4), 723–746
Documents systematic favorite–longshot pricing biases in betting markets.